Analyst as Difference-Maker: Lessons from Firefighting in the American West

Building a great model is very different from actually influencing an organization’s decisions. Unfortunately, many analysts with a great deal to offer sit powerless in their offices because of this difference. But there is a great deal an analyst can and should do if they want their analytics to matter. Wildland firefighting in the American West 2015-2025 provides a case study in building impact as an analyst. Advanced analytics were present in the National Forest Service from the early 2000s but it wasn’t until the late 2010s that they gained any real traction. What led to this change? What lessons can we draw from a domain so analogous to sports analytics it has been called “Moneyball for Fire”?

Cade Massey is a Practice Professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and the Faculty Director of Wharton’s People Lab. He received his PhD from the University of Chicago and was on faculty at Duke and Yale before moving to Penn in 2012. Cade works at the intersection of academia and industry, striving to bridge the gap between research and practice on decision-making, influence and personal development. He has had long-term collaborations with Google, Merck, Doctors Without Borders and multiple professional sports teams. He is originally from West Texas and now lives outside of Austin, Texas, with his wife, one cat, two dogs and three goats.